Chinese weakness and monetary policy uncertainty triggers sell-off
This morning, risky assets have been selling off – most notably the Japanese stock market is down more than 7%. The sell-off has continued in European trading with European stocks trading sharply...
View ArticleEmerging Markets FX: how bad can it get?
This week the emerging markets have been hammered. Most of the high-yielding currencies have been under strong selling-off pressure as investors have been reducing risk trying to get rid of...
View ArticleTurkey: Erdogan shaken, not stirred – political uncertainty returns
Street protests increase political uncertainty and weigh on markets. This morning the Turkish markets are under serious selling pressure after tens of thousands of people took to the streets in the...
View ArticleThe consensus expectation is for an unchanged number
Market movers today In the US, preliminary University of Michigan confidence for June is due to be released. The consensus expectation is for an unchanged number but we think it could surprise on the...
View ArticlePolitical jitters and low risk appetite pose risk for EM
Despite country-specific events in some emerging markets countries, the sharp sell-off in EM assets that we have witnessed over the past month seems to have largely been triggered by concerns about the...
View ArticleFew significant macro numbers on the agenda today
Market movers today Fed fears and Chinese growth concerns will be at the top of the agenda in the European trade today. Look especially for Emerging Markets to come under further pressures – focus on...
View ArticleMarkets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering
Market movers today Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering. There are no key figures of significance today. Selected market news The US stock markets took a beating yesterday and...
View ArticlePBoC and Fed still in driving seat
The EMEA markets have come under pressure in recent months. Local factors such as political unrest in Turkey and weak Polish macroeconomic data have undoubtedly had a negative impact on sentiment in...
View ArticleAll eyes will be on this evening's FOMC statement
Market movers today All eyes will be on this evening’s FOMC statement. We do not expect any changes in policy but think that the Fed will stay on track to start tapering in September despite more...
View ArticleThe most interesting will be to what extent Spain and Italy follow suit
Market movers today Today’s ECB meeting will be interesting although a rate cut seems unlikely. Draghi could counter rising money market rates with a refinancing rate cut but the case seems less...
View ArticleUS: FOMC statement: A minor dovish twist
There were only minor changes in the July FOMC statement compared to June but there are three things worth noting: 1) The statement struck a slightly more worried tone about the risks from low...
View ArticleSummer calm returns
EMEA currencies have rebounded After quite a few jitters in the global financial markets in May and particularly June, some calm has returned over the past month. This has also benefited the EMEA...
View ArticleECB will announce the weekly repayment of the 3Y LTRO
Market movers today ECB will announce the weekly repayment of the 3Y LTRO, which is likely to attract attention as excess liquidity continues to fall towards the EUR200bn mark. The trend in the weekly...
View ArticleBetween developed market recovery and emerging market slowdown
So far, 2013 has brought fairly good news for the developed economies of the world. Japan is seeing a fairly sharp recovery after the unprecedented monetary policy regime change, the US economy...
View ArticleThe Polish economy remains weak
Following the steady but marked decline in the Polish economy throughout 2012 and Q1 2013 (where growth was a disappointing 0.5% y/y), there are now signs of a recovery. Both the manufacturing PMI...
View ArticleTurkey: TRY inching closer to fair value
The Turkish Lira (TRY) has been hammered on the back of the escalating market turmoil in Emerging Asia and worries about Fed tapering. Turkey’s large current account deficit is clearly the main worry...
View ArticleTurkish lira nearer fair value
The Turkish lira (TRY) has been hammered on the back of the escalating market turmoil in emerging Asia and worries about Fed tapering. Turkey’s large current account deficit is clearly the main worry...
View ArticleUSD/TRY: is the recent sell-off unusual?
In the past week, we have seen a significant sell-off in emerging market currencies and yesterday the Turkish lira took a beating, reaching a record low against the US dollar. The Turkish central bank...
View ArticleTough week for Emerging Markets
This has been a hard week for emerging markets as Fed tapering concerns and fears over an early US-led military strike on Syria sparked risk aversion, sending some of the emerging market currencies to...
View ArticleBelka signals wait-and-see stance
Yesterday, the Polish central bank (NBP) unsurprisingly kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2.5%. Equally unsurprisingly, the NBP signalled that it would remain in a wait-and-see position for some...
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